The greek - french Defence Agreement
On the 27th September in 2021 Greece and France signed a mutual Defence Agreement. This Agreement include Article 2, that tey aid each other in Case of an armed on their Territory. The Agreement was made after Tensions between Greece and Turkey in the eastern Mediterran rose high in second half of 2020.
<script async src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-8134220077089686"
crossorigin="anonymous"></script>The Agreement also include the delivery of 24 Rafale Fighter Jets to Greece and three to four Frigates of the Bellhara Class. This mean Greece profit in two Ways from this Agreement:
1: Greece likey secured direct french military Support in Case of an armed Conflict with Turkey.
2: Greece got Access to advanced french Weaponary to modernise it's armed Forces.
The greek - french mutual Defence Agreement have one weak Point, it does not apply to the EEZ(Exclusive Economic Zone). In the International Law maritime Zones are not declared as Territory. During the parlamentary Debate for the Ratification of the Agreement, the main Opposition Party Syriza insisted the Agreement need to Cover the EEZ and continental Shelf. This was the Reason why Syriza voted against this Agreement in the greek Parliament.
An mutual Defence Clause in the EU still exist, south Cyprus and Greece are Member of the EU. In an event of an Crisis they can invoke the mutual Defence Clause Article 42.7.
It is stated:
“If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with article 51 of the United Nations charter”
This mean the memeber States are obligated to help the attacked Member by all their means and within their possibilities. The Assistance can come in form of medical Aid, sending Weapons till to that Point were a Tank Platoon or a Fighter Sqadron could be send. Like the greek - french Agreement it not cover the EEZ and continental Shelf of a State !
Implications for Turkey
The EU is known for the Lack of Unity between the Member States and building up real european armed Forces seems to be a long run Process. The Agreement between Greece and France seems to be a more likely Threat for Turkey, even there is no Guarantee that France would Intervene and the Agreement only mention a Attack on the Territory.
According to the french Constitution the President is Commander in Chief of the armed Forces. The President in France have the Power to deploy Troops abroad, but he can not declare a War on it's own without informing the Parliamentin Advance. According to the Constitution a Declaration of War must be autorized by the Parliament. The Process to Intervene by France is less complicated, than by 27 EU States.
The Challenges for Turkey
An Intervention of France could make the military Situation for Turkey more complicated. Likely they would deploy a Carrier Strike Group which consists for example of:
- The Aircraft Carrier Charles de Gaulle, which can carry up to 40 Aircraft, arround 30 of them are modern Rafale M Multi Role Fighters with 2 E-2C Hawkeye for AWACS Support. There are also Eurocopter SA-365F Dauphin Helicopters and one or two Cougar,Puma or Super Pima Transport Helicopter.
- One FREMM Multi Mission Frigate
- One Horizon Class Air Defence Destroyer
- One Submarine Rubis Class nuclear powered Attack Submarine
- One Replishment Vessel
The Escorts Area Air Defence Capabillity together with the advanced Rafale M Fighters can have an impact on TurAF ability to project Airpower into the eastern Mediterran. The resupply of turkish Troops in northern Cyprus is depend from Air and naval Supplies. The Escorts could also launch MdCN LACM with a Range more than 1000 km + important strategic High Value Targets. This could pose a serious Threat for turkish Assests which are important to protect north Cyprus. It's also possible France to send beside the CSG other Squadrons of Fighters, naval Assests and ground Forces to Support Greece.
Turkey need to improve it's Cruise Missiles Defence Capabillities and the Anti - Access/Area Denial(A2/AD) Capabillities. About the Air Defence Capabillities and A2/AD there there will be another Analysis.
On Twitter I posted a Thread were I explained likely Scenarios how TAF could counter the Carrier Threat.
https://x.com/BaburKhan1983/status/1809990320777724037?t=2SNqlxXDjwi85iBhxIlwZQ&s=19
Sources:
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220211-explainer-what-does-a-french-president-do
https://x.com/AIYeyENGDdJkjTr/status/1787402180661838225
https://www.mbda-systems.com/product/ncm/
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