Does Turkey need nuclaer Weapons ?

Introduction:

Turkey is located in a Region were different Conlicts are located, like middle East, Caucasus, Ukaine and the Conflict with Greece/Cyprus over the Aegean and exploration Rights for Hydrocarbon in the eastern Mediterran. The military Footprint of Turkey is also increasing, like the Presence in Somalia, Libya and Katar. This Presence mean more Influence and a stronger dipomatic Footprint. On the other Side there is an increasing  Chance to get involved in local Conflicts.

In 2014 there was an Report from different german Newspapers, that german Intellagece Agency(BND) found Signs that Turkey work on a secret nuclear Programm. It is also claimed that the Electronics for the pakistani nuclear Programm were coming from Turkey.

The turkish ballistic Missile Programm 

Since 1997 when Turkey purchased WS-1 MLRS Rockets from China under a tech - Transfer Agreement, the Technology were developed further. Turkey startet also to develop ballistic Missiles, based on chinese B-611 ballistic Missile. In 2001 the J-600 T Yildirim had entered Service in the turkish armed Forces Invertory, in 2007 the Missile was revealed to Public at 30 th August Parade in Ankara.

Successor of the Yildirim was the Bora Tactical ballistic Missile System with a publicly known Range up to 280 km, the Export Version of he Bora is the Khan.

The Tayfun SRBM(Shot range Ballistic  Missile) was tested at October 20, 2022. The Missile hit a Target 561 km away from it's launching Point, but it's real Range might be higher and it's not revealedto the Public. The Range of Tayfun SRBM reach likely up to 1000 km. The next Stage of Ballistic Missile Development will be Cenk, this Missile will be in the MRBM(Medium Range Ballistic Missile) which exceed the Range of 1000 km.

The Threat Environment 

Turkey is located in a Region were Conflicts are boiling, Turkey is at a gestrategic Intersection between Europe, Eurasia and the middle East. The only nuclear Power in the Region, even when it's not official Confirmed is Israel, with arround 80 - 300 nuclear Warheads expected in it's Arsenal. As delivery Systems they have Jericho Ballistic Missiles from different Variants. Their longest Range Missile Jericho-III reach a Range up to 6500 km, Turkey does belong to the middle East Proximity and the geograhic Range to Israel is just arround 500 km from northern Israel to south Turkey. This mean Turkey is in the Range of israeli Ballistic and Cruise Missiles with less Range in the SRBM and MRBM Category.

Iran share a Border with Turkey ,the County have a great ballistic Missile Arsenal with a Range that cover till to south - east Europe. Beside it's ballistic Missile Arsenal, it run a nuclear Programm which includes nuclear Power Plant and enrichement Facilities. Iran is a geopolitical Rival for Turkey, the Country following a different Atitude than Turkey on the middle East and Caucasus. Officially Iran deny that it have Plans to built a nuclear Arsenal for miliary use. If Iran would archieve to built nuclear Weapons, an important Rival can Threaten vital Interests of Turkey in the Caucasus and middle East. In event of an regional Conflict, Iran could use tactial Warheads to stop any Advance of turkish Troops in that Regions. This Circumstances could make Turkey incapable of taking Action Iran against iranian Interests in that Regions.

Since 27.09.2021 France and Greece signed a mutual defence Pact, which includes Article 2. That mean if any Party will attacked by a third Party, this Clause will be activatet. In an likely Conflict in the Aegean or eastern Mediterran a french Intervention could take place. France is a nuclear Power and an Conflict that involve a Nuclear Power could mean a Risk for the use of nuclear Weapons. 

What would happen for example if turkish Forces would inflict heavy losses on french Naval and Air Assests or sink the Aircraft Carrier Charles de Gaulle ? It's immaginable that France could consider the nuclear Option ! 

On 24.11.2015 there was an Crisis after Turkey shot down an russian SU-24 Fighter - Bomber which violated turkish Air Space, during this Crisis Russia threaten'd to use tactical nuclear Weapons againt turkish Forces. Russia is geopolitical Rival for Turkey, Turkey and Russia have different Interessts towards Eurasia and the middle East.

Does Turkey need nuclaer Strike Capabillity ?

This Question is not easy to answer, for sure, as we see from the Threat Envirement. A nuclear Capabillity must ensure a credible Detterent against an Enemy ! 

A credible nuclear Detterent need:

- sophisticated Space and Ground based early Warning Systems.

 

- Submarine based second Strike Capabillity.

- MIRV Capabillity for ballistic Missiles, that enemy ATBM Systems can be overwhelmed.

- Hypersonic Glide Vehicles and Cruise Missiles to overcome current ATBM Systems.

There is also a great Risk of economic and financial Sanctions to be applied on Turkey, if it try built up an nuclear Arsenal. Turkey need to diversify it's Trade and to become more independent from the western financial System. Considering the BRICS Membership is a right step towards this Direction !

Conclusion:

Considering nuclear Weapons under current Circumstances will not be a wise Decision, because of the Lack of Hypersonic, second Strike Capabillity, Early Warning Capabillity and the small Range of the ballistic Missiles, which are to less to deter Adversaries with a great strategic Depth or Adversariesfrom several thousand kilometres.  Another important Point is the economic and financial Dependence on the western System. At all, Turkey need to do the technologic and political Steps that it can built up an nuclear Capabillity in Future !